I will never forget the night Paul Lis was fired.

My parents were at my house, but I refused to budge from my barstool because I couldn't miss this. Not for them. Not for anybody.

Lis was a big-time political fixer back then. He has known just about everybody who was anybody in Illinois and Chicago politics. He's been an informal adviser to many of the old top dogs, and at the time he was fired he was working for Governor George Ryan, Senate President Pate Philip, and House Republican Leader Lee Daniels. Ryan was trying to pass a bill to toughen an assault-weapons law, but Philip and Daniels were having none of it.

I joked to a Democrat last week that I seriously doubted state Representative Kevin McCarthy (D-Orland Park) would ever vote for a legislative pay raise again after getting whacked so hard by the Republicans this fall for his previous pay-hike votes. McCarthy has been brutalized for those votes, and he's had to work harder on this campaign than he has in over a decade.

"I don't think Kevin will vote for anything" came the reply.

He could very well be right, and not just about McCarthy. There are a whole lot of extremely frightened Democratic legislative incumbents out there right now, including those who don't have serious opponents. And even if individuals survive November 2, they will surely watch in horror as many of their colleagues go down in flames.

It's not every day that a group almost nobody has ever heard of gives $175,000 to a single state legislative candidate. But that's just what happened on October 7, when Stand for Children Illinois PAC handed over that gigantic check to Republican Ryan Higgins, who is vying to replace retiring state Representative Paul Froehlich (D-Schaumburg).

In fact, Stand for Children's $175,000 check represents the largest single contribution to a legislative candidate - other than from a caucus leader or a party organization, or candidate loans to themselves - since contribution records were put online 16 years ago. It's probably a good bet that the group's contribution to Higgins is the single largest "outside" legislative campaign check in modern Illinois history.

The race for governor appears to be seriously tightening. The U.S. Senate race has been close all along. Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White, both Democrats, are surely heading for big wins next month.

But Republicans are doing quite well in congressional and state legislative races pretty much all over Illinois except in the "bluest" of the blue regions in and near Chicago. Down-ballot Democratic incumbents are running scared all over the place.

And if you want to see how truly weird this election year is, then head on over to House Speaker Madigan's southwest-side Chicago district. Madigan has sent five campaign mailers to his constituents over the past several days.

While the Republicans say the pollsters are contacting the wrong people, the fact remains that three polls released last week had the Illinois governor's race within 2 percentage points. And five polls released in the past month have shown it to be a single-digit race.

The Chicago Tribune's pollster had Democratic Governor Pat Quinn leading Republican state Senator Bill Brady 39-38 last week, which is a narrower margin than its 5-point Brady lead a month ago. A CNN/Time poll had Brady up by 2, and a Democratic Governor's Association poll had Brady up by one. Public Policy Polling had Brady with a 7-point lead.

The Republicans say the "universe" is skewed on all these polls. They believe that Republicans could actually outnumber Democrats come Election Day by a narrow margin. At the very least, they say, those other polls just skew too far Democratic.

If the Republicans are right, it would be the first time their party would outnumber or come close to outnumbering Democrats in any Illinois election in a very long time. This is a weird year, so nobody really knows who's correct at the moment. Still, you need to keep the GOP's strong objections very much in mind as we head into the final weeks of this campaign.

If you talk to state legislative Democrats, they'll tell you that their latest round of polling is showing improvement in most of their races since the summer. The Republicans, however, believe they have history on their side.

The House Democrats say their candidates are sticking to a strict and intense precinct-walking program. That, plus the end of the Rod Blagojevich trial, allowed them to stabilize their campaigns. They see polls showing their candidates doing better than they were and believe they've turned the corner.

The union that represents thousands of state and local government employees, AFSCME, was one of the bigger Democratic campaign contributors in the final six months of the 2008 campaign. But this year the union will be sitting out almost all of the Illinois House Democrats' top races.

The union met in Springfield several days ago to formalize its endorsements. They announced backing for Governor Pat Quinn, Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate, Judy Baar Topinka for comptroller, and Robin Kelly for treasurer. But their legislative endorsements - and their lack of endorsements - were the most interesting.

Chicago Mayor Richard M. DaleyChicago Mayor Richard M. Daley's stunning decision to step down at the end of this term has at least temporarily sucked almost all the oxygen out of Illinois politics and focused just about everyone's attention on an extremely rare open-seat contest.

There hasn't been an open seat race for mayor since 1947, when Ed Kelly stepped aside so the Machine could endorse reformer Martin Kennelly. Richard J. Daley defeated Kennelly in the 1955 primary, and the rest is history. This upcoming open-seat race is just about the rarest Illinois political event most of us have seen in our lifetimes.

A Virginia-based group that wanted to play in Illinois politics but didn't want to disclose its donors has lost round one in what could be an extended court battle.

The Center for Individual Freedom (CFIF) filed a federal lawsuit earlier this summer claiming that the state's contribution-disclosure laws for not-for-profits and political committees should be tossed out.

Lots of people are having trouble getting their heads around the fact that Republican state Senator Bill Brady may well be our next governor. This is, after all, a Democratic state.

But it's way past time to consider Brady a very real probability. Governor Pat Quinn's poll numbers, along with the economy and the state budget, are in the dumper. Scott Lee Cohen will likely target African-American voters and badly damage Quinn's chances. The Green Party's candidate won't help, either. And almost $2 million spent on TV ads attacking Brady on abortion, health care, and the minimum wage haven't yet worked.

I've told you this before, but I think it's even clearer now: This campaign looks more and more every day like the 1980 presidential campaign between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. We have the decent, honest person who can't seem to run a government up against a conservative guy who all the liberals love to hate.

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