Political reporters and pundits have a bad habit of saying, "If present trends continue ... ." The truth is, in politics, "present trends" almost always change.

Last week, Illinoisans were treated to a classic example of how that overused phrase can so often be horribly wrong.

Let's take a look back, shall we?

Bob BigginsIllinois House Republicans had a universal message for Representative Bob Biggins (R-Elmhurst) last week: You are officially an outcast.

Biggins infuriated his fellow Republicans by switching his position and voting for a $3.7-billion borrowing plan supported by Democrats. The money would be used to make the state's annual pension payment. Without it, the state would have to slash programs such as education and human services and health care or delay the payment, which could cost the pension funds tens of billions of dollars in the long term.

Twenty years ago, Secretary of State Jim Edgar and Attorney General Neil Hartigan ran for governor against each other. Both men released their tax returns without much fanfare.

Four years later, Governor Jim Edgar and his opponent, Comptroller Dawn Clark Netsch, both released their tax returns. It wasn't much of a story.

Then, in 1998, gubernatorial candidate George Ryan released his tax returns for the first time. He had adamantly refused to do so while he was secretary of state. And Ryan continued to refuse to release anything other than his current returns. Most of what he eventually got busted for happened while he was secretary of state, which may be no coincidence.

It occurred to me not long ago that the best analogy for this year's governor's race would be if the Washington Generals played the Washington Generals.

The Washington Generals basketball team was formed in the 1950s specifically to play solely against the Harlem Globetrotters. The Generals lost more than 13,000 games in the ensuing decades and won just a handful. All of those wins were due mainly to luck. If you ever saw them play, you know that the hapless team just couldn't do anything right. They were comedic in their supreme ineptness.

A Washington Generals split squad game would surely be a sight to behold. Fortunately for us, we don't have to imagine such a spectacle. We've got one right here in Illinois.

One of the things that became crystal clear last week during the Illinois Senate's debate over a new state budget was that the Democratic legislative leaders have completely broken the budget-making process.

It's no big secret that more and more power has been concentrated into the hands of the leaders - the House speaker and the Senate president. And now they have it all.

Long gone are the days when the appropriations committees had any input. Also vanished is the "budgeteers" system, in which appropriations chairs and experts from each caucus would sit down to hash out the budget's details. Instead, all of the work is now being done by staff at the leaders' absolute direction.

As a consequence, senators barely had any idea about what they were voting for last week when they approved a budget along party lines. The committee hearing before the vote provided precious few details and instead revolved around partisan bickering over a Democratic maneuver solely designed to embarrass the Republicans. Republicans repeatedly denounced the budget process as far too rushed and wholly un-transparent, and they were right.

I was out with some political buddies the other night and the subject of Bill Brady's taxes came up.

Just about everybody agreed that Brady should never have released his tax returns. All he did was make a bad situation worse, they said.

This year's Republican gubernatorial nominee released his returns four years ago when he ran for governor the first time. The returns showed he earned well into six figures and had lots of successful businesses. Nobody paid much attention at the time because Brady was an unknown state Senator with little chance of winning the GOP nomination.

But when "tax day" came around this year, reporters asked the new nominee if he'd release his returns again. He said he wouldn't, claiming that the last time his business suffered. Brady's refusal sparked a few stories, but things really heated up when Governor Pat Quinn stepped into the fray.

The Illinois General Assembly usually tries to adjourn by the end of May. That hasn't worked out too well the past few years as partisan bickering, the state's huge budget problems, and the bloody war between former Governor Rod Blagojevich and House Speaker Michael Madigan forced months-long overtime sessions.

The last time the legislature truly got out early was in 1999, when then-Senate President Pate Philip demanded they adjourn by April 15. After legislators left town, I didn't know what to do with myself. There were no statewide elections at all the following year, which meant that absolutely nothing was going on in the political world. So, I went to Kosovo to cover the war and then took my daughter on a tour of Europe and went with my dad to Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. It was quite an adventure. Later that year, I went to Cuba during then-Governor George Ryan's official visit. I have fond memories of that year. I actually had a life back then.

This year, though, the calendar says the General Assembly plans to adjourn by May 7. I haven't really experienced a May without grueling work hours since those halcyon days of 1999, so that pleases me. But I'm not holding my breath, because of all the carnage I've seen the past few years. I just can't bring myself to believe.

Almost nothing frightens state legislators more than redistricting. The drawing of new legislative district maps after every census causes more bouts of heartburn than just about anything else.

Take a look at the day after the September 11, 2001 attacks, when several state senators flocked to a secure computer room to check on their district boundaries just ahead of a critical map-making deadline. The rest of us were still in shock, but those senators were taking care of business. Their business.

The ultimate goal in redistricting for legislators is not only to get a map that allows them to remain in their current homes and discourage competition from the other political party, but also to draw a district that eliminates primary opponents and includes their strongest precincts and closest allies.

It seems like everywhere you look these days, the Illinois Democrats are getting hammered.

Most of the Democratic carnage is self-inflicted, like the Scott Lee Cohen debacle, or the brutal gubernatorial primary, or the troubles at U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias' family bank, or the decision to run a lobbyist with close connections to House Speaker Michael Madigan for Cook County assessor.

But some of the media coverage is going far over the top lately, and a few people in Chicago really need to take a breath already.

For a couple of otherwise pretty smart fellas, the two major-party candidates for U.S. Senate seem to be playing right into the other's hands these days.

Pages