MONMOUTH, ILLINOIS (December 12, 2023) — "The cake is baked."
That was the headline-making declaration last week by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, referring to former President Donald Trump's status as a shoo-in to receive his party's nomination in the 2024 election.
Monmouth College political-science faculty member Robin Johnson, who hosts the Heartland Politics weekly radio show on WVIK-FM, was asked if that was indeed the case — and if it's also a foregone conclusion that the political primary season will lead to a Trump-President Joe Biden rematch in eleven months.
Trouble in River City?
"The first sign of any potential Trump weakness will be in Iowa," said Johnson, referring to that state's caucuses on January 15.
The Democrats have changed their primary calendar, now opening with South Carolina on February 3, but the Republicans kept the Hawkeye State in its longtime opening position. Members of Monmouth College's political-science department will once again take a busload of students and faculty to observe a caucus in Burlington, Iowa.
According to a major poll released on Monday, the former president remains firmly in the driver's seat. Trump has 51% first-choice support, according to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll. That's up from 43% in the same poll conducted in October.
"The Republican caucus will be the first test of whether any of the candidates remaining can compete with Donald Trump," said Johnson. "(Florida Gov) Ron DeSantis is positioned to tighten, and possibly win, Iowa. He has visited all 99 counties — a 'full Grassley' — has the backing of the state's major evangelical group and has the best field operation among the candidates."
Johnson's comment references Iowa Sen Chuck Grassley's practice of holding public meetings in all of Iowa's 99 counties each year since first taking office in 1981.
"Especially if other candidates continue to drop out, DeSantis is poised to make the race closer than current polls suggest and possibly pull off an upset," said Johnson. "A strong showing in Iowa could position him as the major alternative to Trump and force other candidates from the race sooner."
A primary foe for Biden?
Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is almost certain to run against Biden.
"The Democrats are running out of time to field an alternative," said Johnson. "The polls and pundits still overwhelmingly see a Biden-Trump rematch, but we'll see what the people have to say about it once the voting starts."
A reason that Democrats are seeking that alternative, said Johnson, is a recent Wall Street Journal poll.
"It showed Biden at a new low in terms of his job performance, yet he was still tied with Trump," said Johnson. "Third-party candidates could pull voters from both candidates and add another element of uncertainty. Biden needs to firm up support among several key subgroups, especially young voters."
While a DeSantis victory in Iowa could alter the political landscape slightly, a major disruption could still occur in the months ahead, Johnson said.
"A guilty verdict on one of the trials facing Trump could throw the country into uncharted territory," he said. "Add to that the chance of a global incident and we're in for a tumultuous political year. There's a decent chance of the popular vote winner once again losing the electoral-college vote. I see the election once again coming down to seven or eight states and razor-thin margins."
