It may be no surprise to some, but new polling shows Barack Obama is doing better with hardcore Illinois primary voters than Hillary Clinton is doing with voters in her own home state of New York. Also, voters are split over whether Obama should be more critical of Chicago corruption, and the Republican presidential primary appears wide-open here.
The Illinois poll was commissioned by my political newsletter, Capitol Fax. The poll, taken last Thursday, surveyed registered voters who have chosen either Democratic or Republican ballots in the last two presidential primaries and have never picked a different ballot. They're the hardcore of the hardcore and are very likely to vote.
The poll found Obama leading the pack of presidential hopefuls here with 52.6 percent of the vote among hardcore Democrats. Clinton came in second with 24.6 percent. Former U.S. Senator John Edwards was third with 9.5 percent. None of the other declared candidates topped 3 percent, while 6.9 percent chose either "other" or "undecided."
In
New York, two recent polls have shown Clinton with a bigger lead, but
polling well under 50 percent. A Quinnipac University poll had her
ahead of Obama 44 to 14, but a more-recent survey from Siena
College's Research Institute had Clinton ahead of the second-place
Obama 39 to 17 with 13 percent of Democrats undecided.
Obama captured well over 70 percent of the vote in the 2004 U.S. Senate race, so his Illinois numbers in this latest poll might be a surprise to some who expected him to be doing even better. Clinton was raised in Illinois and is, of course, a very well-known commodity. That probably explains why she is polling higher here than Obama is polling in New York.
The Illinois poll also found voters are nearly evenly split over whether Obama has been sufficiently critical of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley regarding corruption in City Hall.
A tad over 49 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican primary voters said they believed Obama has sufficiently criticized Daley, who just won another landslide re-election race, while 51 percent said he has not been critical enough.
The issue of Obama's alliance with the Daley Machine has been a much bigger issue in Illinois than it has been on the national stage. But since this story is being constantly pushed here, it has the potential to one day bleed into the national debate.
About 60 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican residents of Chicago and Cook County thought he had criticized Daley enough, but just 36 percent of Downstate voters believe he has sufficiently criticized Daley.
Slightly under 61 percent of hardcore Democratic voters said he has done enough to criticize Daley, while 35 percent of hardcore GOP voters said the same. A majority, 53 percent, of collar-county primary voters said he has criticized the mayor enough, while 47 percent said he hadn't.
Meanwhile,
the poll also showed that Illinois' Republican presidential primary
has no obvious favorite at this point.
The survey of hardcore Republican primary voters showed U.S. Senator John McCain with an ever-so-slight lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. McCain was ahead of Giuliani 26.1 to 25.7.
Former U.S. Senator and actor Fred Thompson came in third with 17.7 percent. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was fourth with 10.2 percent, and former Wisconsin governor and George W. Bush cabinet member Tommy Thompson was fifth with just 3.3 percent. Undecideds and "other" totaled 17 percent.
McCain is slipping rapidly in national polling, but he still has support among Illinoisans who backed him in his 2000 presidential bid. Giuliani recently signed up House Republican Leader Tom Cross, who is helping get that organization together. Thompson has not yet formally announced, but he is looking more like a candidate every day.
The automated phone poll was conducted by Ask Illinois, which has done a lot of polling for political candidates and interest groups and has a good reputation among insiders. The firm uses special technology to blast out hundreds of calls simultaneously, and it contacts huge numbers of people. In this case 3,509 hardcore Democrats and 3,761 Republicans responded to the poll, leaving us with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 1.18 to plus-or-minus 1.52 percent, depending on the question. Republicans and Democrats who indicated they intend to cross over to the other party next year were omitted from these results. The difference was statistically insignificant.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and (http://www.thecapitolfaxblog.com).
