DAVENPORT, IOWA (February 26, 2025) — The Quad Cities Chamber’s Market Report for Q4 2024 explores the shifting factors shaping our local and national outlook. While growth is expected to stay at or near the long-term trend, risks have increased. A softer labor market, rising inflation pressures, and policy uncertainty could cloud the forecast in the months ahead.
US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from a revised 3.1% in the third quarter. That slowdown hasn’t shaken analysts' confidence in what many are calling a successful “soft landing” — the scenario that’s been talked about for months. But what comes next?
At the Quad Cities Chamber’s annual Economic Forecast event in December, RSM Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Depew, put it this way: “We’ve experienced the best economy in a generation — that people still love to hate.” Growth has remained resilient despite higher interest rates, and with GDP expanding 2.8% for the year, the economy has now seen three straight years of growth between 2% and 3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in January signals confidence in the current trajectory, though uncertainty remains.
Regionally, Midwest economic performance continued to lag behind national trends in late 2024, a pattern likely to persist into early 2025. Labor market numbers remain weaker than a year ago, though the Quad Cities saw a slight recovery in Q4. The risk of recession this year hasn’t completely disappeared, but it’s more likely to come from an unexpected shock rather than a policy error.
The full Market Report published by Bill Polley PhD, Director of Business Intelligence for the Quad Cities Chamber is available on the Chamber’s website — providing an in-depth analysis of our QC economy.
- Regional Market Summary
- Labor Market Update
- Business Outlook Survey — results of a survey issued by the Chamber
