Illinois state Senator Daniel Biss appears to be the first Democrat to actively float his name for the 2016 special election for state comptroller.
The Evanston Democrat is known as a policy wonk around the Statehouse, but he's also a prodigious fundraiser, ending the fourth-quarter reporting period with $721,000 in the bank.
The special-election law was passed by the General Assembly in early January - just weeks after the death of Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka. Governor Pat Quinn signed it into law on his way out the door.
If the new law is upheld by the courts (which seems likely but not certain), the state's appointed Republican Comptroller Leslie Munger will have to stand for election in a presidential year.
Since the days of President Bill Clinton, Republicans have been at a distinct disadvantage during presidential-election years. No Republican presidential candidate has won this state since 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis 51-49. Back then, Illinois was considered a "bellwether" state for presidential campaigns. No longer.
Anyway, Biss would first have to survive the Democratic primary. And although no other candidates have yet floated their names, it's expected that we will see some interest. (There's even some talk that Quinn might run.)
Biss pushed hard for state-worker pension reform when he was in the House and then again after he moved to the Senate. That hasn't endeared him to labor unions, although I'm told he's been attempting to reach out to the unions to try to smooth things over. Biss ran unopposed last year, so the Illinois AFL-CIO took no position on his nonexistent campaign.
Meanwhile, state Senator Napoleon Harris (D-Flossmoor) has been eyeing a move up the political ladder almost ever since he won the 2012 primary election to replace the retiring incumbent Senator James Meeks.
Harris expressed strong interest in running for the U.S. House seat vacated by the disgraced incumbent Jesse Jackson Jr. but wound up bowing out. Now, Harris is looking at a possible U.S. Senate bid.
Harris is a former NFL football player. Many of his former teammates have plenty of extra cash, which gives Harris a natural fundraising base.
Harris is also a successful businessman in his own right. Harris owns a pizza restaurant chain and paid a hefty sum to make his pies the official Chicago White Sox pizza at U.S. Cellular Field last year.
Harris is the first state legislator to express a strong interest in the race. All of the other possible candidates mentioned so far are members of the U.S. House.
One of those U.S. representatives expressing interest in running for Senate is Robin Kelly, who ended up winning that 2013 special election to replace Jackson (with Harris' eventual endorsement). If both she and Harris end up running, that would mean two African Americans from the south suburbs would be competing in the Democratic primary. Kelly would have to give up her House seat to run, but Harris just started a four-year term.
Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Kirk has a moderate (for Washington, DC) voting record. Kirk will also have strong support - financial and otherwise - from the majority Senate Republicans if he runs, which appears likely at this moment. And Kirk will benefit from a newly rebuilt party infrastructure, courtesy of Bruce Rauner's gubernatorial campaign, and from Rauner's super-wealthy contributor network. Kirk himself also has built an impressive fundraising network of staunch Israel supporters.
Even so, no Republican U.S. Senate candidate has won Illinois during a presidential year since Charles Percy was re-elected in 1968. President Richard Nixon absolutely stomped Democrat George McGovern that year by 19 points in Illinois. Even so, the Democrats won back the governor's office.
The last Republican U.S. senator from Illinois, Peter Fitzgerald, declined to run in the 2004 election, when George W. Bush lost the state by 10 points. And the average Democratic presidential winning margin in Illinois since 1992 is more than 16 points. Yes, Barack Obama pumped up that average, but they all won by double digits.
Yet it's not an impossible task for Kirk. He could actually run to the left of Harris on some social issues if the legislator manages to survive the primary. Harris voted "present" on the gay-marriage bill, for instance. Kirk favors the liberal side of that position.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
