On the general-election ballot in Illinois, voters will be able to choose from four candidates for U.S. Senate: a Republican, a Democrat, a Green, and a Libertarian.

That might seem like sufficient choice - and it certainly covers a wide political spectrum - but consider that seven candidates were removed by the Illinois State Board of Elections.

That's because Illinois has put so many barriers between people who want to run for office and the ballot. Established parties - Republicans, Democrats, and Greens presently - need to collect 5,000 valid signatures for their statewide slates. Independent statewide candidates and other parties need to collect five times as many valid signatures: 25,000.

Beyond that, the petitions of third parties and independent candidates are often challenged by people working on behalf of Democratic or Republican organizations. This year, Republicans have been most active in the ballot-access wars, perceiving a threat from several limited-government parties.

These challenges have several effects. First, they make the effective signature threshold much higher. "The challenge process effectively turns the 25,000 requirement into a 50,000 requirement to account for potential[ly] invalid signatures," wrote Steve Hellin, the communications director for Illinois' Libertarian Party, in an e-mail.

Second, the financial, human, and time resources required to fight a challenge are significant and come at the expense of traditional campaign activities such as fundraising, advertising, and connecting with voters one-on-one. "Attention is put to the mechanics of existence, which may or may not be especially relevant in actually getting someone elected," wrote Phil Huckelberry, chair of the Illinois Green Party. "It's an absurd approach to democracy."

If you talk to state legislative Democrats, they'll tell you that their latest round of polling is showing improvement in most of their races since the summer. The Republicans, however, believe they have history on their side.

The House Democrats say their candidates are sticking to a strict and intense precinct-walking program. That, plus the end of the Rod Blagojevich trial, allowed them to stabilize their campaigns. They see polls showing their candidates doing better than they were and believe they've turned the corner.

Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley's stunning decision to step down at the end of this term has at least temporarily sucked almost all the oxygen out of Illinois politics and focused just about everyone's attention on an extremely rare open-seat contest.

There hasn't been an open seat race for mayor since 1947, when Ed Kelly stepped aside so the Machine could endorse reformer Martin Kennelly. Richard J. Daley defeated Kennelly in the 1955 primary, and the rest is history. This upcoming open-seat race is just about the rarest Illinois political event most of us have seen in our lifetimes.

Lots of people are having trouble getting their heads around the fact that Republican state Senator Bill Brady may well be our next governor. This is, after all, a Democratic state.

But it's way past time to consider Brady a very real probability. Governor Pat Quinn's poll numbers, along with the economy and the state budget, are in the dumper. Scott Lee Cohen will likely target African-American voters and badly damage Quinn's chances. The Green Party's candidate won't help, either. And almost $2 million spent on TV ads attacking Brady on abortion, health care, and the minimum wage haven't yet worked.

I've told you this before, but I think it's even clearer now: This campaign looks more and more every day like the 1980 presidential campaign between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. We have the decent, honest person who can't seem to run a government up against a conservative guy who all the liberals love to hate.