I think on August 19 a new and brief window of opportunity opened that might finally help wrap up this long and drawn-out state-legislative overtime session.
But that window will only be open for 15 calendar days - the time the state Constitution gives each legislative chamber to vote on a veto override.
Allow me to explain.
I spoke with some Rauner folks last week and, man, are they ever on the warpath about the Senate's August 19 override of the governor's veto of the AFSCME bill - legislation that would prevent a strike by or lockout of state workers and would instead require binding arbitration after an impasse is reached. The House has 15 days from that date to take its own action.
Even though AFSCME has never invoked its binding-arbitration power with state corrections officers (who cannot strike by law), the governor and his people clearly see this bill as an intrusion on executive-branch powers.
The governor has called the legislation the "worst bill in Illinois history." He says it would remove the only popularly elected official from labor negotiations (himself) and replace him with an unelected, pro-union arbitrator. (The unions have numbers showing that employers have won a slightly higher percentage of arbitration cases in this state than employees.)
He has ginned up editorials all over the state, privately warned all Republicans that a vote to override guarantees a primary opponent next year, and made it clear to Democrats that the best way to ensure a 2016 GOP opponent would be to vote "yes" on this motion.
One Senate Democratic operative only half-jokingly said last week that the governor was "flipping out" about the bill.
The governor was also quite blunt the day of the Senate vote when he said that this override was a "test" of Senate President John Cullerton. "Is he controlled by Speaker [Michael] Madigan or does he make his own decisions for the benefit of the people of his district in the Senate?" Rauner asked rhetorically.
The clear implication was that if Cullerton went ahead with the override, the days of referring to him positively in public were over. Rauner has often said that he could work with Cullerton and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel if it weren't for bad ol' House Speaker Madigan. Rauner's people have also made a point of mentioning that they left Cullerton out of Rauner's TV and direct-mail attack ads, referring only to Madigan. But those days are over, too.
After the Senate's override, the Rauner folks were vowing revenge. Cullerton "walked his members out on a plank," said one. If Madigan doesn't call the bill for a vote, Cullerton will have put his members, particularly his suburbanites, in fatally harm's way, said another. Madigan should not expect a single House Republican vote to replace any of his own conservative "no" votes, said another, even though one Senate Republican, Sam McCann, voted with the Democrats to override last week.
It was clear to me that they were declaring all-out war.
So why is any of this positive news? It's pretty elementary.
The governor has obviously established his top immediate priority, which is preventing the first and clearly important veto override of his brief career.
There are, of course, two ways out of a corner. You can either negotiate or bull through it and fight.
Right now, the Rauner folks are itching for a fight. They want to stop this override dead in its tracks in the House and then start their revenge war in the precincts. It's understandable. They're angry as all get-out.
But Rauner has a way to stop the override if he can see beyond his anger and realize he's in a trap of his own making: cut a deal on his "Turnaround Agenda," fix the budget, declare victory, and bring the overtime session to a conclusion.
Tellingly, the House Democrats made some discreet behind-the-scenes inquiries last week about possibly setting up negotiations on the governor's agenda, which he says must be completed before he'll talk about the budget.
The point is that on August 29 we arrive at what could be the single most important moment in this overtime session.
After the 15-day clock runs out, we could very well look back on this as either the beginning of a negotiated truce or the start of the harshest, meanest political war we've ever seen.
Whatever happens, everybody has a choice here.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
